The Paradox Setup and the Surprise Test Resolution

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PARADOX SETUP
There are 10 identical boxes on a shelf, each with a padlock. There is only 1 key that can open all of these 10 boxes and Stu has the key. Prof places a unique token (called a “test”) into 1 of the 10 boxes. Stu then locks them all and leaves the room. Prof can move the boxes around in any way she wants, but she must line them up on the shelf from left to right. When Stu comes back into the room, he will open the boxes from left to right. Now imagine that Stu is playing against Prof in a game. The rules are that Prof wins if she can create an algorithm (i.e., a method) to guarantee that Stu is surprised when he opens the box that contains the token. So, Stu is absolutely certain that the test is in one of the boxes and he knows that Prof wants to win the game and will do her best to surprise Stu. Stu wins the game if Prof’s algorithm does not guarantee that Stu will be surprised.
• If we assume that everyone involved is perfectly rational, who will win this game, Stu or Prof?
• If you think that Prof will win, provide the strategy that you think she can win with, along with an explanation for why it guarantees that Stu will be surprised.
• If you think that Stu will win, explain in detail why it will be impossible for Prof to come up with any algorithm that wins with 10 boxes. Will Stu win regardless of how many boxes Prof can use? Explain.
Answer section 1 (300 words), section 2 (150 words), and section 3 (150 words)
This easy is essay 2 which called group essay in the requirement, it need to separate in to three section.

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Your Name
Subject and Section
Professor’s Name
April 15, 2019
Surprise Test Resolution
I. Section 1 – Resolution
This paradox would show that the prof would win the game if it was held. The rules of the game states that Stu would win the game if the algorithm designed by the Professor would not guaranty that he will be surprised. Accordingly, the definition for being surprised is “if and only if at no time prior to actually opening the box with the token did he have a rationally justified belief that it was more likely than not that the token would be in the box it was found in”. Going to the case, it was said that there are only 10 boxes lined up from left to right and that the professor could move the box, which contains the test anywhere between the ten boxes. Before opening the first box, Stu would have a rationally justified belief that the test could either be in any of the 10 boxes, which lessens his confidence that the test could be found in the first box.

Additionally, since 10 boxes is still large enough, then Stu would not have a strong form of argument, believing that the test could be in the first box. If the prof places the test in the first box, then Stu could be surprised, thereby having the Prof win the game. However, if the prof does not place the test in the first box, then he can still place the test from any of the boxes #2 to #9, which would still guaranty his win. The reason for this is because upon opening any of the boxes, the chances that Stu would be surprised would lessen. For example, if he opens the boxes one by one from left to right, then the possibility that he would be surprised would lessen from N-10, with N being the number of box in the logical sequence stated (i.e., box# 4 = 4-10-6). By following this argument, it could be seen that even if Stu’s idea that the test would be in the next box as he opens the boxes one by one, he would not be able to know that the test would be in the next one, unless it is placed in the last box (9-10 = 1).

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